by maildunais | 2 Aug 2021 | Narayanappa Janardhan, Nicolas Dunais
RESEARCH REPORT2 August 2021The competition between China and India continues to grow, driven by territorial disputes and China’s growing strategic dominance and assertiveness. Both countries are also increasing their demand for energy and raw materials to fuel their economic growth. In this report, Dr Narayanappa Janardhan (Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy) and Nicolas Dunais (Azal Advisors) argue that Gulf policymakers should pursue a balanced relationship with China and India, avoid “picking sides”, and where possible, encourage them to cooperate rather than compete in the commercial and security realms.
by maildunais | 18 Mar 2021 | Michael Stephens
POLICY BRIEF18 March 2021The Eastern Mediterranean continues to be an area of growing importance for some GCC States, on the back of commercial interests, political antagonism, and broader security concerns. In the last years, Gulf involvement has weighed more heavily towards the security dimension, in no small part due to the projection of the GCC rift into the region. Yet if Gulf Arab States are to reap the dividends of their much-needed investments in the region’s commercial infrastructure, it will be in their interest to minimize military posturing and focus instead on economic partnerships.
by maildunais | 17 Mar 2021 | Stephen Seche
POLICY BRIEF7 April 2021While American interests in Yemen have for years focused sharply on counterterrorism, the rise of the Houthi movement has expanded these interests to protecting the territorial integrity of Saudi Arabia and securing adjacent maritime lanes essential for the flow of oil. The Biden Administration’s decision to re-engage diplomatically in efforts to resolve the Yemeni conflict represents an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC to work together towards a peaceful resolution, through a sustained engagement with all involved parties, including Iran, if recently resumed nuclear talks progress sufficiently to add regional-security issue to the agenda. While the United States can lead the engagement with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC should be ready to play a major role in state-building and economic reconstruction once conditions enable it, including in the northern part of Yemen where marginalization of communities has been a contributing factor to the current crisis. This will also entail a recognition by GCC states of the limitations and constraints of current UN resolutions.
by maildunais | 7 Oct 2020 | Bernard Haykel
POLICY BRIEF7 October 2020The US elections present the GCC countries with potential challenges regardless of the outcome. On balance, the Gulf states would prefer a Donald Trump victory because it is easier to deal with an incumbent leader, who, despite being transactional and capricious, is still committed to the view that Saudi Arabia and the other GCC states are strategic allies and that the US has vital interests in the region that need protecting.
by maildunais | 28 Feb 2020 | Martin Keulertz
POLICY BRIEF28 February 2020China’s Belt and Road Initiative places the Middle East on the Western axis of the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern history, and the GCC at its energy heart. The opportunity is a new geopolitical role: the Gulf can use its location and its position as key energy supplier to China and Africa to establish itself as a political actor in its own right, akin to Europe or North America. But the risks scale with the prize — a busier Strait of Hormuz, maritime security exposure across the Arabian and Red Seas, sharpened GCC-Iran rivalry, and the competing presences of Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Ankara converging on the region. Whether the Gulf emerges as a global player or a contested corridor will depend on how deliberately it steers the Middle East through the transition.
