The competition between China and India continues to grow, driven by territorial disputes and China’s growing strategic dominance and assertiveness. Both countries are also increasing their demand for energy and raw materials to fuel their economic growth. Since the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are major suppliers of China’s and India’s hydrocarbon needs, and with a possible reduced US role in Gulf security, China and India are expected to grow their military role in the region to protect their supply routes.
Both countries should not, however, be considered through the same lens. India has a larger dependency on the Gulf and greater foreign policy proximity to the United States than China. India and the Gulf further have deeper cultural and historical ties that link their population together. While China does not have the same historic proximity to the Gulf, its larger financial clout, expertise in large-scale infrastructure deployment and growing technological edge make it an indispensable partner to the GCC countries. Yet China’s intensifying proximity to Iran may pose a conundrum to some GCC countries. Regional policymakers need to ensure that China’s and India’s antagonistic relationship is not projected in the Gulf. To achieve this, they should pursue a balanced relationship with each, avoid “picking sides”, and where possible, encourage them to cooperate rather than compete in the commercial and security realms.
From an optimistic perspective, while competition is inevitable in meeting economic, political and strategic objectives, there is nothing stopping the two countries from cooperating and avoiding confrontation to maximise not only mutual but also plurilateral benefits. The GCC countries, despite their differences on various issues, should exploit these openings by continuing their pragmatic and multi-aligned foreign policies.
