Belt and Road Initiative: risks and opportunities for the GCC
POLICY BRIEF28 February 2020China’s Belt and Road Initiative places the Middle East on the Western axis of the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern history, and the GCC at its energy heart. The opportunity is a new geopolitical role: the Gulf can use its location and its position as key energy supplier to China and Africa to establish itself as a political actor in its own right, akin to Europe or North America. But the risks scale with the prize — a busier Strait of Hormuz, maritime security exposure across the Arabian and Red Seas, sharpened GCC-Iran rivalry, and the competing presences of Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Ankara converging on the region. Whether the Gulf emerges as a global player or a contested corridor will depend on how deliberately it steers the Middle East through the transition.