by maildunais | 1 Jan 2023 | Jean-François Seznec, Nicolas Dunais
Gulf States are in the front line of the strategic competition between China and the United States. The former seeks to secure a steady supply of oil while extending its economic and technology influence. The latter continues to play a dominant role in enabling the defence of Gulf States while leveraging this position to keep them from embracing China. This situation is also reflected in the recurring topic of the dedollarization of global oil-trade and China’s desire to settle oil-purchases in its own currency, the Renminbi, which for a variety of reasons does not yet serve the interests of Gulf-based oil-exporters. This report argues that a multilateral and oil-collateralized digital currency (MCDC) could provide like-minded Gulf oil-exporters with a tool of partial monetary policy independence and enhanced global influence, ultimately enabling them to carve a more independent policy that serves their own interest rather than the one of either of the two super-powers.
by maildunais | 2 Aug 2021 | Dr N Janardhan, Nicolas Dunais
The competition between China and India continues to grow, driven by territorial disputes and China’s growing strategic dominance and assertiveness. Both countries are also increasing their demand for energy and raw materials to fuel their economic growth. In our latest report, Dr Naranayappa Janardhan (Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy) and Nicolas Dunais (Azal Advisors) argue that Gulf policymakers should pursue a balanced relationship with China and India, avoid “picking sides”, and where possible, encourage them to cooperate rather than compete in the commercial and security realms.
by maildunais | 25 May 2021 | Omar Al-Ubaydli
Many GCC governments have established or are in the process of establishing behavioural economics (“nudge”) units as an additional instrument of policymaking, with the support of Western experts. With sustainability considerations becoming more central in the policy development process, nudging has a key role to play in effectively changing citizen behaviour. Yet local specificities mean that replicating models which have worked abroad is fraught with risk: social habits among GCC citizens can result in nudge campaigns having the opposite effects to the ones intended. In this context, it is essential to leverage local expertise to ensure campaigns are effectively delivered and government efficiency is maximized.
by maildunais | 18 Apr 2021 | Ambassador (ret.) Stephen Seche
While American interests in Yemen have for years focused sharply on counterterrorism, the rise of the Houthi movement has expanded these interests to protecting the territorial integrity of Saudi Arabia and securing adjacent maritime lanes essential for the flow of oil. The Biden Administration’s decision to re-engage diplomatically in efforts to resolve the Yemeni conflict represents an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC to work together towards a peaceful resolution, through a sustained engagement with all involved parties, including Iran, if recently resumed nuclear talks progress sufficiently to add regional-security issue to the agenda. While the United States can lead the engagement with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC should be ready to play a major role in state-building and economic reconstruction once conditions enable it, including in the northern part of Yemen where marginalization of communities has been a contributing factor to the current crisis. This will also entail a recognition by GCC states of the limitations and constraints of current UN resolutions.
by maildunais | 18 Mar 2021 | Michael Stephens
The Eastern Mediterranean continues to be an area of growing importance for some GCC States, on the back of commercial interests, political antagonism, and broader security concerns. In the last years, Gulf involvement has weighed more heavily towards the security dimension, in no small part due to the projection of the GCC rift into the region. Yet if Gulf Arab States are to reap the dividends of their much-needed investments in the region’s commercial infrastructure, it will be in their interest to minimize military posturing and focus instead on economic partnerships.
